Not unexpectedly, Australia's record low 0.1% cash rate figure will continue for the 16th month in a row with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)  announcing Tuesday that the country's inflation isn't consistently high enough to warrant an increase. Instead, RBA governor, Dr Philip Lowe, is holding onto his long-held view that patience is the key to the best possible cash rate outcome for the country -  despite the fact that inflation has picked up more quickly than he had expected. "However, this inflation remains lower than in many other countries," Dr Lowe said. "It's too early to conclude that it is sustainably within the target range (so) the RBA board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range." Dr Lowe also admitted that a global COVID recovery had resulted in a far more resilient Australian economy and an increase in spending, even after the latest Omicron variant caused havoc across the country. "Household and business balance sheets are in generally good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed," Dr Lowe said. He added that increasing the country's positive outlook is the labour market's 4.2% unemployment rate, which is its lowest rate in 14 years and according to the RBA's central forecast, could fall to below 4 per cent later in the year and continue at this rate until 2023. However, these positive points were balanced out by the negativity of Russia's devastating invasion of Ukraine late last week, which resulted in a major increase in the world's energy prices and a disruption to supply chains. "The prices of many commodities have increased further due to the war in Ukraine, Dr Lowe said.  He added that higher petrol prices from global developments would see consumer price index (CPI) inflation rates surge upwards. "How long it takes to resolve the disruptions to supply chains is an important source of uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook, as are developments in global energy markets," he said. "Wages growth also remains modest and it is likely to be some time yet before growth in labour costs is at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at target." What's the outlook for property? Industry experts across Australia were largely unsurprised about RBA's immovable decision. The 0.1% rate hasn't changed since November 2020 when the RBA slashed it from an eight-month stint of 0.25%. A growing number of financial experts now believe a rate increase will occur in August or September, or at least sometime this year. CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless is one such expert, explaining after February's RBA cash rate announcement that rates could still increase in 2022, despite the RBA consistently confirming this won't happen before 2023. After this month's cash rate announcement, Mr Lawless commented that the enduring 0.1% rate was nonetheless having an effect on the property market. As Lending Loop mentioned after RBA's November 2021 rate announcement, lenders are already raising their rates in a bid to head off a cash rate increase, and Mr Lawless concurred this week that this was continuing to happen in a less affordable housing world. "Credit policy has (also) tightened and lenders are likely to be more cautious in lending decisions," Mr Lawless said. At the same time, Mr Lawless explained that while the RBA was "sanguine" about housing market trends, it would certainly welcome less heat in the market. "A strong housing market has buoyed the household sector and supported the economy through the pandemic," he said. "But worsening affordability and higher household debt levels are the downsides to the housing market upswing." Mr Lawless said the property market was already slowly beginning to cool down with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) released Tuesday  showing a broad-based slowdown in the rate of value growth. "While housing values are generally rising, the pace of growth in the national index has trended downwards since April last year," Mr Lawless explained. "February’s growth of 0.6% marks the lowest monthly growth reading since October 2020 and is down from 1.1% in January and a cyclical peak of 2.8% in March 2021. "This is the slowest monthly rate of growth since September 2020." Also expected to soften demand in the market are falling household savings while rising advertised inventory is providing more choice and less urgency for buyers, Mr Lawless added. He said that for now, the cash rate's forecast depended largely on Australia's unemployment rate, with the RBA keen to see a more significant lift in wages while also realising this growth would be gradual. "But this lift is the missing piece of the puzzle," he said. "It's clear the RBA is firmly focussed on inflation outcomes along with labour market conditions and wages growth, to guide their policy decisions." What should I expect as a mortgage holder? Firstly, take a breath and be encouraged that for now at least, the 0.1% cash rate remains the same. Also, take heed of Mr Lawless' thoughts on a potential rate increase. He believes that while there are downside risks to this possibility for the housing sector, other factors should help to offset a significant downturn. "As the economy strengthens and labour markets tighten, the risks around mortgage stress or default should lessen," he said. "Open international borders will help to support demand, initially from a rental perspective, but longer-term for home purchasing as well." On the other hand, bear in mind that your interest rates may escalate before an RBA cash rate announcement, particularly so if you have a fixed rate home loan, as we earlier noted. So, regardless of whether you’re a first-home buyer or property investor, you may want to consider refinancing your loan to achieve the best possible deal, or at least, pay off your mortgage sooner rather than later. But rest assured, we’re your biggest supporter, so give us a call today at Lending Loop. The RBA's next monthly cash rate announcement will be on Tuesday, April 5 at 2.30pm AEDT.