Real Estate

RBA cash rate rise: 10th time unlucky for mortgage holders

RBA cash rate rise: 10th time unlucky for mortgage holders

In an unsurprising announcement, Australia's national cash rate has risen for the 10th time in a row to reach 3.6%.

Today's 0.25% spike means the nation has endured a jump of 3.5% in interest rate rises in less than a year.

Or in other words, an average monthly increase of 0.32% since rates first began rising in May 2022, after an 18-month COVID stall at 0.1% - with the new 3.6% figure amounting to an 11-year cash rate high for the country.

The closest to our current figure - 3.5% - was recorded in June 2012.

The unrelenting RBA rises also mark the sharpest annual spike since 1989.

Mortgage holders and potential borrowers were left unsurprised by RBA governor, Dr Phillip Lowe's continued determination to return inflation to the 2%–3% target range today, while still keeping the economy on an "even keel".

At the same time, despite Dr Lowe's insistence on upping the cash rate, inflation remains infuriatingly, undauntedly high. 

As Lending Loop noted at February's cash rate rise, the country's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now 7.8%, according to January figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Worse, despite last year's eight consecutive cash rate rises, the CPI rose 1.9% in the December quarter.

Cash rate changes 2020-2023

Oft-repeated RBA plans

Dr Lowe's announcement today was very similar to that of last month, December 2022, and earlier.

However, the governor did focus on some new, significant points and predictions, including:

  • while global inflation remains very high, it is moderating (in headline terms)
  • However, services price inflation remains elevated in many economies, including Australia
  • the monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked 
  • Australia's economic growth has slowed after solid growth in 2022 

RBA unmoved by wage growth decline 

CoreLogic's executive research director, Tim Lawless, noted that wage growth data - published after the RBA's February board meeting - also didn't move RBA's plan to raise rates today.

"The decision to raise interest rates further was well-telegraphed by the RBA after the February board meeting and .... highlighted concerns inflationary pressure could become entrenched amid wages and price data exceeding the RBA’s expectations," Mr Lawless said.

"Notably, wage price data came in lower than market expectations, however, this doesn’t seem to have swayed their resolve to push rates higher in an effort to quell inflation."

Mr Lawless is also concerned that new borrowers will find it even more difficult to service their mortgages.

"With the cash rate now 350 basis points higher through the hiking cycle to date, along with cost-of-living expenses probably well above what was budgeted, more households are likely to be facing balance sheets that have become thinly stretched," he said.

However, what could help "keep a lid" on mortgage defaults is a trend towards improved underwriting standards and an expectation that labour markets will remain relatively tight, Mr Lawless explained.

No news is not good news - or is it?

Also unsurprising in today's RBA announcement was that Australians should expect "a further tightening of monetary policy .... to ensure that inflation returns to target".

And as it has from its second cash rate rise in June 2022, the RBA Board remains "resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that".

Finally, from December 2022, the RBA has repeatedly said that the current period of high inflation is only temporary.

Thus, mortgage holders and buyers can only hold onto that hope for now.

The RBA's next monthly cash rate announcement will be on Tuesday, April 4, 2023, at 2.30pm AEDT.

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