With what the property market has experienced in even the past few years, it can be a little scary to explore too far into the future.

But with 2030 now only seven years away (which is scary in itself), let's take a deep breath together, keep calm and carry on as we explore how property prices could look in the new decade.

Property prices in 2023

Property markets in Perth, Adelaide, and Darwin are still performing strongly in 2023 after huge uplifts during our favourite pandemic.

According to SQM Research figures, the median price for a three-bedroom house in Perth is $737,000 - an annual uplift of 9% in the 12 months to April 2023.

For this same house in Adelaide, you'll pay a median of $721,000 following an 11% annual increase, while in Darwin - where admittedly annual price growth has actually not grown but dropped -2% - a similar house will set you back just $610,000.

Now, for the eastern seaboard figures:

Sydney: up 0.4% to $1.5 million

Melbourne: up 0.6% to $1.075 million

Brisbane: up 0.8% to $810,000

Other changes affecting property prices

On top of these figures comes the fact that we're seeing a nationwide trend towards buying in outer-fringe and/or lower-priced areas, including regional towns - so much so that these areas are now performing far better than blue-chip suburbs.

Such top-notch suburbs as Mosman, in Sydney, Brighton and Kew in Melbourne, and Surfers Paradise on the Gold Coast all recorded major price losses in 2022, as compared to 2021.

This is despite the fact that these four suburbs alone enjoyed over $1 billion worth of sales in 2022.

While part of this trend is due to people fleeing COVID-plagued cities, interest rate rises and cost-of-living pressures aren't filling anyone's pockets.

As such, budget-priced areas are increasingly very appealing - even if they aren't in the nicest suburbs of a city.

Then there's the fact that Australia overall just doesn't have the property or land to keep up with its growing population.

But this trend was on the cards even before COVID hit the world with Domain economist Trent Wiltshire finding in September 2019 that in the past five years, more buyers had headed to budget-priced suburbs than to blue-chip ones.

This was particularly the case in Melbourne where budget-priced suburbs were also experiencing the strongest price growth.

Financial changes affecting property prices

It's hard not to forget the 10 consecutive cash rate rises of 2022 and this year, nor how energy and grocery bills are going up ... and up and up.

Then there's high inflation which, while dropping ever so slowly, was still 7% as of the March quarter - far too high above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s 2-3% target.

Plus, with another RBA cash rate announcement next Tuesday - the first after the first stall in nearly a year earlier this month - rates may rise again.

Or they may not.

Either way, it's a tricky financial time for Aussies, to say the least.

The property market in 2030 

So, what can we expect to see with property prices in 2030?

Let's have a look at how property prices in our main capital cities (apologies to the ACT and Hobart) travelled in the past decade*:

• Sydney: +7%
• Melbourne: +6%
• Brisbane: +6%
• Adelaide: +5%
• Perth: +2%
• Darwin: +0.2%

And some other important points to note:

1. Don't expect house prices to double in the next seven to 10 years - merely because many property "experts" report that this is what prices usually do.

CoreLogic's executive research director, Tim Lawless, called this idea a "long-held housing myth" and one that was very rare in reality.

"Over the past decade, none of the capitals and only one regional market (regional Tasmania) recorded a growth rate of 100% or higher," he said.

"In the previous 2002-2012 decade, it was only Perth and Darwin where housing values doubled."

2.  Don't expect to see the lovely low property prices that our parents and grandparents enjoyed in the 1970s and even the late 1990s.

Despite plenty of statistics and figures showing prices are declining, remember that they grew exponentially during the pandemic.

So, a 0.4%, or similar, drop in the past year won't change much in the general scheme of property prices.

3. Long-term issues such as a lack of property supply won't end overnight and certainly not by 2030, particularly with the country experiencing another strong migration boom.

4. The migration boom could spike property prices further in the coming years, according to Metropole's Michael Yardney.

This change saw the country experience a net gain of 171,000 residents in FY2022, Mr Yardney said, quoting statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

As well, another 50,000 Chinese students are heading back to our shores after COVID lockdowns.

"Add in the natural growth of the population and this suggests that population growth is running at record levels, at an annualised pace of over 500,000," Mr Yardney said.

"And for our property market, this means demand… and an oversupply of it."

5.  Lower birth rates may also change what people's house needs - and therefore our property prices - look like in the new decade.

The property market = long-term thinking

Whether you're a first-home buyer, first-time property investor, or an owner-occupier set to stay in your home for several years or more, the property market is a long-term game.

Most property owners hold onto their home for an average of nine years - at least, says CoreLogic.

So, don't explore just the past few years - especially with COVID in the midst! - or just the next few years when examining property prices.

Examine the past 30-odd years with all its flaws and foibles to plan and prepare for those of 2030 and beyond.

And don't necessarily fly into panic mode about house prices the next time a pandemic rolls around. 

Good luck!

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So, give us a call today at Lending Loop.

* based on three-bedroom house prices